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Oracle已经过时？(3) "Oracle and DB2 are now legacy databases: very few truly new sales compared to license renewals and add-on sales to existing customers, very few young people coming out of schools wanting badly to learn about them. SQL Server is the safe choice that won't get you fired, and the open source databases such as mySQL will prevail when they can deliver the neccessary (rather few, basic) functionalities that the developers of tomorrow will require (such as handling transactions correctly, have good backup methods, and so on)." The irony as far as Mogens is concerned, is that "whenever a system or technology reaches a level of perfection (in other Words, science is used as a rule) it will be replaced by something more chaotic that looks (and perhaps even is) cheaper", something that happened to mainframes before and, just at the point where it reaches the level of "technical perfection", could possibly be the fate of the Oracle RDBMS itself. Mogens made the same points again in his column in the Autumn 2004 edition of Oracle Scene, and, thinking about the earlier point about databases in general being made into a commodity, says that this will have the following effect on database professionals: "So the DBAs are slowly being replaced, outsourced, diverted to other tasks, or being asked to focus on other things, too. That means three things for our database world: 1. The databases will usually run, because nobody is fiddling with parameters and other stuff. 2. No new features will be tested and implemented (after all, 7.3 is still plenty of database technology for most uses). 3. When things finally go wrong, a lot of other complications, due to the lack of daily nursing, fiddling, and caring, will be discovered, making the troubleshooting and restore/recovery process even harder in an even more critical situation.
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