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Oracle已经过时？(4) It means something else, too: For companies specialising in this sort of scenario, with a bunch of techies still around who can stay current with the latest without forgetting the (basiCS of the) past, there will be lots of work for the next 10 years." whilst for Oracle in particular, the effects are likely to involve a change in business plan "...I think it’s fairly safe to say this today: - Oracle and DB2 are legacy databases, you don’t get fired currently from choosing SQL Server, and the open source databases will become the default as soon as they’re good enough, which will happen real soon now, since more and more work takes place outside the database, turning the database into a data dump.
- The open source databases will do to the database market what Linux is currently busy doing in the O/S market.
- Oracle gets most of its license profits from the database. If they don’t find additional sources of income (and profit), such as PeopleSoft, they will fail because of the constant attack on their profit sanctuaries (the database licences and Support).
- Oracle will be bought by IBM or HP if they don’t manage to grow to a comparable size."
So what does this mean for us then, whose careers (presumably) are based around our knowledge of Oracle? Well I think it's safe to say that, whilst I'm in total agreement with Mogens on his assessment of the market (which unfortunately always picks cheapest and simplest above complexity and costly) I'm sure everyone would agree that the Oracle RDBMS isn't going anywhere in the near future. If you spoke to Tom Kyte (or indeed Mogens) you could point to any number of new features that make Oracle more powerful, easier to administer and less costly to run, and no doubt when databases such as SQL Server and mySQL get the features that Oracle currently has, they'll be just as complex to administer.
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